Sustainable Arlington

By 2035 the ‘Great Fuel Switch’ Will Mark the End of the Age of Oil and Gas, Analysts Expect

Solar and wind energy will meet 20 percent of global power needs sooner than previously forecast. Close to 20 percent of global power needs will be met by solar or wind energy by 2035, marking a shift from the age of oil and gas to the age of renewables, according to a new report from researchers at the consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The growing focus on sustainability in many parts of the world, the report says, “is almost akin to a gravitational force, pulling things in one direction and driving the ‘great fuel switch,’ leaving little possibility for a reversal.” Energy transitions, similar to the ongoing shift to renewables, are nothing new, Wood Mackenzie researchers write in the report released Wednesday, entitled “Thinking Global Energy Transitions:  The What, If, How and When.”  The current hydrocarbon-based economy has itself evolved out of many previous energy transitions, from the age of biomass to the age of coal, and, ultimately, to that of oil and gas.  Each of these was different, but all took at least 30 to 50 years to unfold, the report says. Technological advancements in the renewable energy industry, coupled with the growth of energy storage and the growth of electric vehicles, are driving the “large-scale commodity switch” away from fossil fuels, Prajit Ghosh, Wood Mackenzie’s head of global strategy, power and renewables, said Wednesday in a statement. “The result is that the energy transition seems less the plot of a sci-fi movie and more of a feasible, albeit ambitious, plan,”[…]

'Dire' IPCC Report Ignites Headlines, Media Coverage

Whether report, and media coverage of it, will budge public opinion remains unclear. News of the short-term climate catastrophe scientists say the world now faces first came over the weekend of October 6-7.  That’s just as many across the U.S. were already consumed by “breaking news” of an entirely different sort – the confirmation of a new Supreme Court justice, Brett Kavanaugh....Major broadcast networks and cable news stations, and what remains of serious daily newspapers soon were giving earnest play to the latest IPCC report, and expressing substantial levels of concern. For those who somehow missed it, a quick catch-up:  The news from IPCC scientists gathered from across the world was indeed serious, and troubling to all but those wanting to still play the “hoax” card.  A few samplings from the report:“Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society.”Limiting the warming to 1.5 rather than to 2 degrees C will provide “clear benefits to people and natural ecosystems…, ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society.”  That is, there’s a big difference in that one-half degree C in terms of adverse impacts.“We are already seeing the consequences of 1-degree C of global warming through more extreme weather, rising sea levels, and diminishing arctic sea ice, among other changes.”“By 2100, global sea-level rise would be 10 cm [nearly four inches] lower with global warming of 1.5 C compared with 2 C.”“Likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer[…]

Warming Raises Threat of Global Famine Repeat

Global warming is increasing the chances of worldwide harvest failure on the scale of the tragic 19th-century drought and famine that claimed 50 million lives. Climate change driven by human-induced global warming could recreate the conditions for a re-run of one of the most tragic episodes in human history, the Great Drought and Global Famine of 1875 to 1878. Those years were marked by widespread and prolonged droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, triggered by a coincidence of unusual conditions in the Pacific, Indian, and North Atlantic Oceans. The famine – made more lethal by the political constraints linked to 19th-century colonial domination of three continents – is now thought to have claimed up to 50 million lives. And the message contained in new research published in the Journal of Climate is stark:  what happened before could happen again. One of the triggers was a cyclic blister of Pacific warming called El Niño, known to reverse global weather patterns, scorch rainforests and destabilize societies. Another factor was a set of record warm temperatures in the North Atlantic that have been linked to drought in North Africa. Linked to famineA third was an unusually strong Indian Ocean dipole, a natural cyclic temperature change that has recently been linked to famine in the Horn of Africa. The 1875-78 drought and famine began with the failure of the monsoon in India and China, leading to the most intense drought in the last 800 years.  So many died in Shanxi province, China, that the[…]

Thursday 18

Designers Are Reinventing Hurricane Maps for an Era of Extreme Weather

As climate dangers rise, researchers are testing new ways of communicating clearly about uncertainty. Over the years, various researchers and media organizations have tested out new ways of visualizing the potential path of a hurricane.  One method that has gained a lot of traction is to visualize each possible path as a separate line in what’s called a “spaghetti graph.”...Among the redesigns he’s seen, Alberto Cairo, a data visualization expert who has been conducting research with his colleagues at the University of Miami to improve hurricane maps, thinks this is one of the most promising.  He intends to study it more with his colleagues as part of their research. “We will try to test as many alternatives as possible to see which one or what combination of maps works better for people,” he says.  Ultimately, the solution may not even involve showing the hurricane’s trajectory if their research finds that people don’t need that information to make a decision. “Because that’s the whole purpose,” he says, “Giving people the information that they need to make a sound decision as to how they need to protect themselves and their families.” Read more at Designers Are Reinventing Hurricane Maps for an Era of Extreme Weather